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Reoffending of juveniles: Results from 2004 cohort
This report analyses the one-year re-offending rates of juveniles (those aged 10 to 17) released in the first quarter of 2004. The report shows two types of re-offending: actual re-offending rates: the percentage of offenders who re-offended during a one year follow-up period and subsequently received a pre-court disposal or were convicted in court; and predicted re-offending rates: the estimated percentage of offenders who will re-offend, after changes in offender characteristics over time have been controlled for.
Title: Re-offending of juveniles: Results from 2004 cohort
Authors: Elizabeth White, Lucy Cuppleditch
Series: Home Office Statistical Bulletin 10/06
Number of pages: 44
Date published: June 2006
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There are two Public Sector Agreement (PSA) targets for reducing re-offending: PSA 10 specified that the actual rate should be lower than the predicted rate by 5% by 2004 (compared to the baseline year of 2000) and PSA 5 specified that the actual rate should be lower than the predicted rate by 5% by 2006.
In 2004, the actual one-year re-offending rate was 41.3%. Re-offending means that the offender committed an offence within the one-year follow-up period and subsequently received a pre-court disposal or was convicted in court. This compares favourably with the rate of 43.3% recorded in 2000.
Actual rates are not used for the Public Sector Agreement (PSA) targets. Instead predicted rates are used to take into account the differences between groups of offenders. The 2004 group of offenders was slightly less likely to re-offend than those in the baseline year (2000). This resulted in a predicted rate of 41.9%. As the actual rate for 2004 is lower than the predicted rate, there has been an improvement over the 2000 results. This is a relative reduction in re-offending of 1.4% between 2000 and 2004. This difference is statistically significant. A further 3.6% is required to meet the PSA 5 target to be measured on the 2006 cohort.
The results for PSA 10, measuring progress between 1997 and 2004, indicate a reduction in re-offending of 3.8%. As this cohort is the outturn cohort for PSA 10, the data indicate that the five per cent target has been missed by 1.2 percentage points. The measurement of PSA 10 is complex and further information on the 1997 performance is available in the full report
Last update: 27 June 2006