Anticipating Future Trends in Crime and Disorder Audits
Modelling trends in crime, developing models to explain changes
in crime and examining the way trends might develop in the future is
complex and resource intensive. It may well be beyond the
capabilities of most local partnerships. However, there are a number
of ways in which local partnerships can usefully look at future
trends in crime and disorder when undertaking crime and disorder
audits:
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Look at local crime trend analysis
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Look at macro-level research predicting crime trends
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Think about new technology
A distinction should be made between predicting trends in crime
and forecasting future crime levels:
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A forecast of future crime levels would require a model that
took account of all relevant social, demographic and economic
factors that are causes of crime, as well as the likely effect
of current and future policy initiatives likely to impact upon
crime. As such, it is conceptually and practically impossible to
provide forecasts with any degree of accuracy.
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Predictions in future crime trends indicate the likely effect
of specific factors that have been shown to have a relationship
with crime, assuming that no other factors come into play. They
do not take into account the impact of other factors that have a
relationship with crime.
Local crime trend analysis
Much of the data analysis described above could be used to make
simple predictions about the way in which local crime trends are
likely to fluctuate in the near future. For instance, a temporal
analysis of crime might indicate that crime rates fluctuate
seasonally according to seasonally changing leisure habits (for
instance, more town centre drinking during the summer) or seasonal
changes in populations (for instance, an influx of tourists during
the summer or seasonal agricultural workers in the summer and
autumn). Such trends should be used to shape the development of
strategies.
Developing formal models to predict local crime trends would be a
more complicated and resource intensive exercise.
Macro-level research predicting
crime trends
There is a wide range of research that examines the causes of
crime and trends in crime at the macro-level, including
predictions of future crime trends. It is not suggested that
local partnerships should attempt to replicate that work.
However, it is suggested that partnerships should be aware of
that work, and that in some cases it might be profitable to
replicate aspects of that work at a regional level. Economics
& demographics
Home Office research over the last 10 years has attempted to
model historical trends in the level of recorded property crime in
England and Wales. The main economic findings of a 1990 study were
that:
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In the short-term the economic factor associated with rates
of crime is ‘per-capita real personal consumption’. This is
the amount that each person in the country spends, on average,
in any year. When personal consumption increases, property crime
tends to grow relatively slowly or even fall. When personal
consumption grows more slowly or falls, property crime grows
more rapidly. This is thought to be because upturns in economic
growth have the most immediate effect on those who are
economically marginalised and provide an increased capacity for
the lawful acquisition of goods, thereby reducing the temptation
of unlawful acquisition through theft (Field 2000).
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In the longer-term trends in property crime rise with rises
in personal consumption so that trends in theft and burglary are
linked to the stock of crime opportunities as measured by the
stock of consumer goods. For every one per cent increase in this
stock, burglary and theft increase by around two per cent.
(Source: Modelling and Predicting Property Crime in England
& Wales, Home Office 1999) http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hors198.pdf
The main demographic finding was that:
This research has been been used as the basis for predicting
future trends in property crime (Home Office 1999) http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hors198.pdf
The models used for modelling historical trends in crime were
updated and modified to try to project how trends in burglary and
theft might change. The projections made were not forecasts because
they only examined the likely effect of the specific economic and
demographic trends referred to above.
The Association of British Insurers (2000) http://www.insurance.org.uk/ResearchInfo/
suggests several implications:
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The increase in the elderly population may provide an
increase in vulnerability to criminal attack
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An older population will mean that there will be fewer people
in the peak offending group (young males). However, the
reduction in the relative size of the peak offending group may
be outweighed by an increase in the ‘vulnerable’ population
most likely to offend.
Social & lifestyle trends
Changes in the social makeup of communities, changes in
lifestyles; the interaction between technology and society; and
developments in popular culture all have an impact upon crime.
The table below lists a selection of trends that might have an
impact upon crime.
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Social and lifestyle trends |
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Development |
Issues |
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The development of new synthetic drugs |
Drug use is factor in a large proportion of
crime. MDA or ‘ecstasy’ was used in marriage counselling before
becoming a recreational drug. Viagra was developed for impotent men
but has become a recreational drug. In Just Around the Corner
(DETR/Foresight 2000) the possible impact of ‘virtual reality
addiction’ was discussed. |
|
The impact of ‘alcopops’ |
A recent study of the appeal of designer drinks
to young people found that ‘designer drinks’ were popular with
young underage drinkers, particularly 14 – 16 year olds. The
consumption of designer drinks was associated with less controlled
environments, heavier drinking and greater drunkenness (Hughes et al
1997). |
|
The increase in ‘telecommuting’ or homeworking |
Commentators such as Felson (1996) have argued
that people’s changing routines such as more women working and
people engaging in leisure activities outside of the home has
created new opportunities for criminals. (Association of British
Insurers 2000: 29) |
|
The regeneration of city centres |
Much city centre regeneration includes the
development of the alcohol-centred leisure sector, with emphasis
being placed on pubs, bars and clubs. This is likely to have an
impact upon levels of violent crime and disorder, both in city
centres and on routes to and from city centres. |
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The introduction of the 24 hour city |
The move towards a 24 hour city where people can
work, or engage in leisure activities at any time of the day or
night could mean more houses empty during the day and night, thus
leading to increase in burglary. Alternatively, the more
unpredictable patterns of home occupation might increase the risk of
burglary. A 24 hour city might also create new commercial risks with
– for instance – new opportunities for shop lifting during
particular times of the day and night. (Association of British
Insurers 2000) |
|
Reductions in the use of cash / increases in the use of cash
cards and credit cards |
Statistical analysis of burglary, vehicle and
personal crime data reported in the British Crime Surveys between
1981 and 1995 (Association of British Insurers 2000: 10) shows that
the proportion of incidents where cash was stolen reduced from 17.7%
of incidents in 1981 to 8.8% of incidents in 1993. In parallel, the
growth areas of theft were purses, credit cards and cheques. |
|
ICT Exclusion |
As an ability to use Information Communications
Technology becomes a prerequisite of work, a minority who are not
ICT literate are at risk of being effectively excluded from the
labour market. |
|
New technology
The Association of British Insurers (2000) http://www.insurance.org.uk/ResearchInfo/
suggest that there are four fundamental relationships between future
technological innovation and crime:
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Future technology may become targets to be treated or
misappropriated by criminals. The technology attractive to
thieves is the technology that is attractive to consumers. If
the legitimate supply of goods is limited or a product is
exclusive and/or expensive an illegitimate supply of these goods
will emerge.
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Future technology may be used as tools in the commission of
crime. For example, cordless power cutting tools in burglaries.
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Technology can be used to prevent or mitigate crime. For
example, the development of CCTV.
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New or modified environments can also help or hinder criminal
activity
Changes in the social fabric of society play an important role
not only in creating groups and areas with increased vulnerability,
but also in defining the uptake of new technology.
Hot products
Hot products are those attractive to both consumers and
criminals. Identifying possible hot products might be a factor in
determining priorities in a Crime and Disorder Strategy. Several
models have been designed for identifying such products:
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One model developed by Felson (1996) uses the characteristics
of Value, Inertia, Visibility and Access (VIVA) to identify hot
products.
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"Hot products: understanding, anticipating and reducing
demand for stolen goods" Clarke, (Home Office 1999)
uses the characteristics of Concealable, Removable, Available,
Valuable, Enjoyable, and Disposable (CRAVED) to identify hot
products.
Full report: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs112.pdf
Summary report: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/brf112.pdf
The mobile phone
A good example of a hot product is the mobile phone. Expansion of
the mobile phone market has been rapid. The targeting of mobile
phones is already a factor in increasing rates of street robbery. As
mobile phone handsets incorporate internet technology mobile phone
crime is likely to continue and increase. The ‘no-contract’
mobile phones are particularly attractive to criminals because: they
allow greater anonymity for callers; there are loopholes in the
‘pay as you go’ mobile phone schemes that enable knowledgeable
users to switch to other networks and avoid payment; the vouchers
used to pay for calls can also be targeted for theft; vouchers are
easy to reproduce; and, criminals have reprogrammed ‘prepaid’
mobile phones to obtain free calls (reported in Association of
British Insurers 2000: 14). http://www.insurance.org.uk/ResearchInfo/
Examples of future hot products include (Association of British
Insurers 2000)
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