Sexual offences
A gap or a chasm? Attrition in reported rape cases
This report examines the research findings on the reduction in reported rape cases. It looks at the challenges and dilemmas arising from the findings and makes a short series of recommendations.
Title: A gap or a chasm? Attrition in reported rape cases
Author: Liz Kelly, Jo Lovett and Linda Regan Child and Woman Abuse Studies Unit, London Metropolitan University
Series: Home Office Research Study 293
Date published: February 2005
Number of pages: 136
Availability: Download full report 
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Attrition is the process by which rape cases drop out of the legal process.
Home Office figures show an ongoing decline in the conviction rate for reported rape cases, putting it at an all-time low of 5.6% in 2002. The government has pledged to address this gap.
What we know about rape and attrition
Home Office data on reported rape cases in England and Wales show a continuing increase in reporting to the police over the past 2 decades, but a relatively static number of convictions, thus the increasing justice gap.
The highest proportion of cases is lost at the investigative stage (with between half and two-thirds dropping out).
Prosecuted cases involving children were more likely to result in conviction than those involving adults.
Understanding attrition
75% of the sample (3,527 cases) reported to the police. Young people, those with disabilities and those involved in prostitution were the most likely to report incidents. Cases involving known perpetrators were least likely to be reported. The majority of reports to the police were made within 24 hours.
9% of reported cases were designated false, with a high proportion of these involving 16 to 25 year-olds.
One-third of cases were lost at the investigative stage because of evidence issues. In many cases the decision not to proceed was linked to victim credibility.
Consultation between police and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) rarely enhanced case building.
Victim withdrawals accounted for over one-third of cases lost at the police stage. This was due to fear of being disbelieved and of the CJS.
Only 14% of cases reached the trial stage, with a proportion of these not proceeding due to late withdrawal.
Around half of all convictions were the result of guilty pleas, and where a full trial took place, an acquittal was the more likely outcome.
Challenges and dilemmas
Police and prosecutors over-estimate the number of false allegations, losing the confidence of complainants.
The police's emphasis on the difficulties of prosecution and conviction discourages victims to proceed. Fear of the court process is also a disincentive.
Categorisation of cases by the police is inconsistent within and between force areas.
There was a difference in perceptions between complainants and CJS personnel.
Recommendations
CJS needs to shift from a focus on the discreditability of complainants to enhanced evidence gathering and case-building.
The possibility of inter-agency work between police and specialist support agencies should be further explored with respect to providing support during statement taking and providing information on case status.
Home Office counting rules for rape and sexual offences need to be revised to correct inconsistent classification.
Police should have guidance about the timing and content of providing complainants with information about the legal process and the likelihood of a conviction.
Support services for complainants who have reported rape to the police should receive a combination of practical support, advocacy and case tracking.
Case conferences between police, CPS and counsel should be held early to explore potential evidential weaknesses.
There must be mechanisms within CPS to monitor court room prosecution advocacy, and learn lessons from convictions, acquittals and especially guilty pleas.
The significance of alcohol in rape and sexual assault should be recognised and further research of the extent to which men target unknown women who are drinking and the strategies they use to make initial contact.
A public education campaign should be designed to expand the concept of 'real rape'.
Last update: Monday, July 21, 2008